Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff WriterJul 25, 2024, 07:00 AM ET
For many teams, the decision of whether to add or subtract at the MLB trade deadline is as simple as checking the standings.
But every summer, there are a handful of front offices that have a more difficult dilemma. Some teams are on the edge of contention -- or have legitimate hopes of contending the next season -- while also holding some of the deadline's most intriguing trade candidates.
ESPN has identified six such teams, and with the July 30 deadline less than a week away, time is running out for these franchises to choose a direction.
Complicating the decision this year is muddled races for the final playoff spots in both leagues. Even sub-.500 clubs could be one good run away from a legitimate chance to play in October.
With that in mind, we enlisted a panel of eight MLB front-office executives and scouts to help decide the best deadline direction for each of our teams facing the toughest decisions, offering up a verdict and the one big move each should make -- should they choose to make one.
Chicago Cubs
Record: 49-55 | Playoff odds: 8.7%
Our panel says: Stand pat
Even president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer's recent comments that the Cubs were concentrating on the future beyond this season didn't completely convince our panel that Chicago should subtract from its major league roster in the coming days.
"It's one of those rare years where doing almost nothing might benefit them," one executive said. "They don't have a slew of pending free agents who will be gone at year's end and they have a young, emerging bullpen which has looked better lately. Plus, they aren't that far out of the playoff race. Who knows what can happen in the final two months?"
One dissenter to that idea believed that trading away some relievers would benefit the Cubs while allowing them to still compete in the near future.
"It's volatile," a scout said. "They are on a good run right now, so why not move guys at their peak?"
One big move they should make, if they make one: Deal for a young power bat
"Packaging a major league player or two for a top home run-hitting prospect," an opposing exec said would most benefit the Cubs at the deadline.
Chicago needs power in a big way as the corner infield and outfield isn't providing enough of it at the big league level. Third baseman Christopher Morel is its best hope in that department. but the team could use a true slugger who impacts the entire lineup as well as the opposing pitcher. One specific suggestion involved sending one of Chicago's veteran starting pitchers back to his old team.
"Center a package around Jameson Taillon and/or reliever Mark Leiter Jr. to the Yankees for Jasson Dominguez or Spencer Jones."
Detroit Tigers
Record: 50-53 | Playoff odds: 6.4%
Our panel says: Subtract
The Tigers seem to be headed in the right direction for the future, but our panel agreed punting on even an outside chance of the playoffs this year is the right move.
"Detroit isn't quite ready for prime time, in my opinion," one rival scout said. "They seem to be building something there, but moving any pending free agents would be my path."
Our panel was split on the notion of trading Tarik Skubal because of his years of control and as one exec put it because he could "anchor" a future playoff-caliber rotation, but were unanimous in their assertion that Jack Flaherty should be on the move.
"That guy can pitch in any situation," one executive said. "You could send him to a small or big market and I think he'd have success. I think the Tigers can do well for him."
One big move they should make, if they make one: Trade away upcoming free agents to stockpile young players
"It's not one move but a set of them that add up to a big deadline," one NL scout said. "Trade every single one that isn't under team control. [Mark] Canha, Flaherty, [Andrew] Chafin. Whoever. Detroit could be a sleeping giant in a year or two. They need to keep loading up."
Pittsburgh Pirates
Record: 52-50 | Playoff odds: 2.6%
Our panel says: Split decision
Sources around the league continue to indicate the Pirates are going to add at the deadline but is that the right move? Our insiders are split.
"This is a tricky one," one AL executive said. "I get that they haven't made the postseason in a decade, but are they really going to add players and push Paul Skenes and Jared Jones down the stretch? That's why I voted to subtract. It's asking too much. They need to load up for when Skenes and Jones are in their prime."
Pittsburgh has numerous pending free agents, making the decision more complicated. One expert took a more sarcastic view.
"I don't think they have a lot of players other teams want. It's one of those times where those players who could be available are more valuable to them then the open market so I would do some small additions and see if I can sneak into a wild-card spot."
One big move they should make, if they make one: Make a short-term addition to energize the clubhouse
"If I want to show my team that I'm serious, acquiring a rental pitcher or hitter would do it," one exec said. "I would call the Blue Jays. Maybe Justin Turner or Yusei Kikuchi has two good months in them. If the Pirates could ever add money, I'd even take a flier on Cody Bellinger but you might be stuck with him."
Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 51-51 | Playoff odds: 10.5%
Our panel says: Subtract
With no chance at winning the AL East and two division rivals ahead of them in the wild-card race, the consensus was that Tampa Bay should take advantage of the chance for a mini retooling, at least.
"With the Rays, it's never that simple, but moving Zach Eflin seems like a no-brainer," one exec said. "I just looked at that team, they have a bunch of arbitration eligible players so moving over $20 million that Eflin is owed makes a ton of sense."
Even if the Rays do subtract from the roster in the coming days, our panel believes Tampa Bay is positioned to contend again soon.
"You have to give them credit," another executive said. "Even in a down year these days, they don't have to tear anything down. It might be hard to compete with the Yankees and Orioles moving forward, but if anyone can do it, it's the Rays."
One big move they should make, if they make one: Deal the biggest name on their roster
"Trade Randy Arozarena to the Dodgers," one executive said. "He's starting to heat up and the guy loves the limelight. What could be better than Arozarena joining the stars in L.A.? It's a perfect match."
Texas Rangers
Record: 50-52 | Playoff odds: 20.8%
Our panel says: Subtract
"I've followed the Rangers a lot of this year and it just doesn't feel like a repeat is in the offing," one scout said. "But it's not unheard of for championship teams to kick into gear late. Unfortunately, the deadline comes when it comes. They shouldn't be fooled by winning a series against the White Sox this week. If they retool, they could be right back in the thick of things next year."
An opposing view thinks Texas has gotten close enough at the right time and Bruce Bochy deserves a chance to work his magic.
"They waited this long for Max Scherzer to return. Why not see what he and Nathan Eovaldi can do at the top of the rotation? They could even add an arm or two and go for it."
One big move they should make, if they make one: Capitalize on the need for starting pitching
"Trade either Eovaldi or Scherzer or both," suggested an executive.
In what could be the boldest move(s) of all, one executive suggested not one but two trades that would bring deadline reunions for Texas pitchers.
"Aren't the Mets already paying Scherzer? Sure, they'd have to give up a prospect to get him back but that could be a fun boost to their team. And I think Eovaldi back to the Red Sox would be a good move as well. His option for 2025 isn't going to vest so he and Scherzer would be pure rentals."
Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 46-55 | Playoff odds: 0.5%
Our panel says: Subtract
It isn't just the Blue Jays' last-place standing in the American League East that had the majority of our panel calling for a teardown in Toronto.
"I don't think they were that good last year," one executive said. "Now, it's become obvious what they have isn't working. It's not exactly trading guys at their peak, but they need a reset. I say see what you can get for Vlad [Guerrero] Jr. or [Bo] Bichette."
Almost all those polled agreed with that notion, but one opposing view painted a dire situation for Toronto in which even deciding to deal away its veteran players might not be enough to jump start a rebuild.
"It's easy to say tear it down but I'm not sure what that would look like. What would you even get for Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier or George Springer? And it's not like Vladdy is having an MVP season. They might have to run it back."
One big move they should make, if they make one: Deal away Vlad Guerrero Jr.
"Just rip the Band-Aid off and trade Guerrero," one executive said. "The Mariners should be calling every day."
The Mariners and Blue Jays seem to line up well for a deadline deal if Toronto decides to go big. Seattle is in a battle with the Houston Astros at the top of the AL West, despite having just 10 home runs from its first basem*n this season and ranking near the bottom of the league in many offensive categories. Additionally, the Blue Jays have one of the oldest pitching staffs in the league and the Mariners have plenty of pitching depth.
"Perhaps pairing Guerrero with Julio Rodriguez will bring out the best in him [Rodriguez]. Either way, Toronto needs young pitching and Seattle has it in spades."
